First Thoughts: Larry Hogan will not become a U.S. Senator
I am here to reassure Republicans that Maryland is still unwinnable for them.
For just the second time in over forty years, a Republican gets elected governor of a safe blue state. Frustrated by an unpopular incumbent, voters are willing to cross party lines and send a message to the status quo. Still constrained by an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature, the Republican is credited for an improving economy and for giving off a sense of moderation that makes voters comfortable. They easily win a second term before being term-limited and succeeded by a Democrat. When a longtime Democratic U.S. Senator announces his retirement the following year, national Republicans recruit the now-former governor to seek the soon-to-be vacant seat. Despite the governor’s past electoral success, voters are still weary of the national Republican party, and the G.O.P. fails to win the seat.
This was the story of Linda Lingle (R-Hawaii). A former two-term governor, she was the only Republican to win statewide in the Aloha State since 1984. When longtime Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) announced his retirement ahead of the 2012 election, Lingle was considered the one person who could have made the seat remotely competitive. That said, the stakes and dynamics of a state-level race differ considerably from a federal one. Traditional Democrats were not eager to let Republicans use Hawaii to get one seat closer to a majority in the Senate. Accordingly, Mazie Hirono, a Democrat who had narrowly lost to Lingle in the 2002 gubernatorial race, beat Lingle in the Senate race ten years later by a margin of 25 percentage points.
Two weeks ago, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.) announced he would seek the current Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Just as when Lingle announced her run for federal office, Hogan’s decision received significant attention from the national media. In an article published on Roll Call, Daniela Altimari and Niels Lesniewski wrote that his announcement “instantly [shook]” up the battle or the seat. CNN political analyst David Chalian went further, describing the announcement as, “Chuck Schumer’s nightmare.” In their defense, the media is right that Hogan’s candidacy is a big deal. He is a popular politician, running to flip a seat that has not elected a Republican since 1970. Indeed, until this month, this race was deemed unwinnable for Republicans, and would likely have been ignored altogether once the Democratic primary was over. That said, Linda Lingle’s failed Senate bid is just one of many examples of how even the strongest candidates can face insurmountable roadblocks. I am here to reassure Republicans that Maryland is still unwinnable for them.
The Examples
Admittedly, the candidacies of Hogan and Lingle have one significant difference. By December 2010, when Lingle left office as governor, her job approval rating dropped to 44 percent, “during the [2008] recession and after … public backlash over teacher furloughs and other state budget cuts.” In stark contrast, Hogan left office in January 2023 with a 77 percent job approval rating. Nevertheless, there are several more examples of state partisanship weighing down Senate bids of otherwise strong governors.
In 2020, term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock (D-Mont.) announced his run for the Senate seat held by first-term incumbent Steve Daines (R). His decision - made one day before the filing deadline - immediately changed the perception of the race, given his past electoral history in comparison to other Democrats. Bullock defeated Tim Fox (R) to become attorney general of Montana in 2008, before winning the 2012 gubernatorial race over Rick Hill (R), and finally being re-elected governor in 2016 over Greg Gianforte (R). Each victory for Bullock coincided with the Republican nominee for president winning the state. Prior to Bullock’s announcement, Daines was viewed as a lock for re-election. The governor’s decision not only immediately made the race competitive in the eyes of forecasters, but it was also a logistical headache for Republicans. Every dollar they spent on defending Montana was a dollar less they could have spent in states that were more endangered for them (i.e., Arizona, Colorado, etc.). Still, Bullock’s success on the statewide level could not overcome the national partisan lean of the state. On Election Night, despite forecasters considering the race either a tossup or one where Daines was only narrowly favored, Daines easily secured a second term, beating Bullock by over ten points. There was no significant overperformance on Bullock’s part compared to now-president Joe Biden, who lost the state by sixteen points. To compare Bullock’s struggles to Hogan’s, Maryland went to Biden in 2020 by thirty-three points, twice as much as Montana voted against him by.
Two years earlier, Democrats nominated former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-Tenn.) against Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) in a hotly contested election for Tennessee’s open Senate seat. The seat, vacated by Sen. Bob Corker (R), would have been ignored by forecasters if not for Bredesen’s candidacy. The former governor narrowly won his first term in 2002 against Rep. Van Hilleary (R) before cruising to re-election in 2006 against State Sen. Jim Bryson (R). In his re-election campaign, Bredesen carried every county in the state. This, combined with Blackburn’s hard-right viewpoints, led many national Democrats to believe they could flip the seat. The race also saw increased national attention when Bredesen won an endorsement from singer Taylor Swift, in part because of Blackburn’s record. That said, many Tennesseans agreed with Blackburn’s views, and in a state that votes similarly to Montana in national elections, Bredesen lost to Blackburn by eleven points, although he did perform better than Democrats typically do. Democrats had not won a Senate race in Tennessee since 1990. Even with their most recent statewide Democratic officeholder on the ballot, they continued that losing streak.
Two final examples - from much earlier - further showcase the problem with governors being unable to replicate their successes in federal races without accounting for partisanship. In 1996, both parties had recruited a popular outgoing governor to seek Senate seats. Both governors were overwhelmingly re-elected two years earlier, and, like Bredesen, Bullock, Lingle, and Hogan, were considered one of the only candidates who could make the state competitive for their party. For Republicans, Gov. William Weld (R-Mass.) was recruited to run against outgoing Sen. John Kerry (D). Winning 71 percent of the vote in 1994, Weld won every county in the state in his re-election bid. Even he found himself an underdog against Kerry, as Massachusetts has not elected a Republican to serve a full Senate term since 1972 (Scott Brown’s 2010 victory in the state was in a special election). Kerry defeated Weld by eight points.
For Democrats, Gov. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) was nominated to defend an open seat against veteran Chuck Hagel (R). The seat, vacated by J. James Exon (D) was expected to be competitive because two years earlier, Nelson had secured more than 73 percent of the vote in his bid for re-election as governor. Once again, the governor’s popularity was not enough to trump the significantly partisan nature of the state, especially with a coinciding presidential election. Nelson lost to Hagel by nearly fifteen points. What does differentiate Nelson from any of the other governors on this list is that he did, eventually, get elected to the Senate. In 2000, he was elected to the state’s other Senate seat, succeeding Sen. Bob Kerrey (D), and serving from 2011-2013.
Final Thoughts
Nobody should realistically expect President Biden to lose Maryland, which is statistically a more Democratic state than Montana, Nebraska, or Tennessee are Republican ones. Maryland is also as much of a “blue” state as Hawaii or Massachusetts. For Larry Hogan to have any chance of winning the upcoming Senate race, he will need to rely on substantial swaths of voters splitting their tickets in levels that have not been seen for the last several election cycles. He will have to convince Democratic voters that their vote for him would not, in the end, amount to a vote to return Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to the job of Majority Leader. He will also have to convince Republican primary voters (who are heavily pro-Trump) that he will not run away from the party should they nominate him. Then, and only, can he pose a threat to either of the two likely Democratic challengers - Rep. David Trone (D) and Prince George’s County executive Angela Alsobrooks (D).
Hogan’s Senate candidacy is a problem for Democrats in the sense that it could deplete resources the party would need to spend in states like Arizona, Montana, and Ohio - where a loss in any one of those states essentially flips control of the Senate. It is not a threat to Democrats’ chances of holding the seat in Maryland itself. Even if one ignores every example cited above, they should at least understand that partisan polarization is an equal opportunity demoralizer. Just as it has become next to impossible for Democrats to overcome the conservative bent in West Virginia - likely a factor in Sen. Joe Manchin (D) retiring - the same is true for a state as liberal as Maryland has and will continue to be.