First Thoughts: The Predator Protection Party.

Republicans will do anything to avoid having to vote on whether to release the Epstein files.

Photo by Louis Velazquez on Unsplash

What’s going on?

On March 13 of this year, Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) died of complications from lung cancer treatment. He was 77. Prior to his death, Mr. Grijalva represented a U.S. House seat which included much of the city of Tucson and a number of counties along the Arizona-Mexico border. He was first elected to this seat in November 2002 and announced last October that he would not run for re-election in 2026.

Mr. Grijalva’s death left Arizona’s 7th congressional district without a representative. Unlike in the U.S. Senate, where most state governors are allowed to appoint someone to fill a vacant seat, a U.S. House seat remains vacant until a special election is held. Whoever wins said special election completes whatever is left of the two-year term that their predecessor was previously elected to serve. A primary election for this seat was held on July 15, followed by a special election between all party nominees on September 23. The winner of the special election for this district was Adelita Grijalva (D), a county supervisor who is also Mr. Grijalva’s daughter.

Traditionally, the winner of a special election in the U.S. House is quickly sworn into office. This allows their district’s constituents to finally have a voting representative in Congress after several months of not having one. For example, following the resignations of two Republicans from Florida, a special election to fill both seats were held on April 1 of this year. The winners of those elections, both Republicans, were promptly sworn in the next day. Likewise, following the death of a Democrat from Virginia this May, a special election was held on September 9. A Democrat won the election. He was sworn in the next day. It is the Speaker of the House’s responsibility to preside over the swearing-in of an elected member of Congress. Unlike with the representative-elects from Florida & Virginia, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is refusing to swear in Ms. Grijalva following her election win.

Ms. Grijalva was first supposed to be sworn in on September 29 but Republicans, who hold a 219-213 majority in the House, cancelled a number of previously scheduled votes, keeping the House out of session and preventing her from taking office. They subsequently delayed her swearing-in through the first two weeks of October. Republicans are publicly insisting that they are only cancelling votes and delaying Ms. Grijalva’s swearing-in because of a lack of cooperation from Democrats amid the ongoing government shutdown. Johnson has alleged that Senate Democrats are at fault for the shutdown because they oppose a GOP-sponsored spending bill. There’s another incentive for keeping Ms. Grijalva from taking office, however.

Why is it important?

On July 15, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) introduced H.Res.581 which, if passed, would direct the U.S. Department of Justice to publicize various files and records relating to deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. It has long been suspected that these records include the names of other prominent figures who traveled with Epstein and engaged in crimes against children. Throughout the 2024 election, both Donald Trump and JD Vance said that these files should be released to the public. In September 2024, Trump affirmed on a podcast with Lex Fridman that he’d “have no problem with” declassifying the Epstein files. One month later, Vance, on a separate podcast with Theo Von, stated, “we need to release the Epstein list, that is important.” Upon taking office, though, the Trump administration has done everything except release these files. After U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi insisted in February that the files were “sitting on my desk right now for review,” the Justice Department said in July that the files don’t exist. There are no files. There is no Epstein. There is no war in Ba Sing Se.

Because House Republicans always seem to misplace their spine when their party holds the White House, Johnson and the rest of congressional leadership are committed to preventing the Epstein files from being released, and they will not support Massie’s resolution. Therefore, on September 2, Massie filed a discharge petition to force a vote on this matter. Normally legislation must be approved by a committee and then the entire House. But they typically require the support of the majority party leadership to even see a vote on the floor, assuming it doesn’t die in committee. If a discharge petition is filed, however, and it has the support of 218 voting members (regardless of party affiliation or if they are in a leadership role), the House is required to bring the legislation - or related rule - to the floor for consideration. House leadership cannot block a subsequent vote once a discharge petition is successful.

Over the past month, Massie’s petition has received the support of 217 voting members. During and after her campaign in the special election, Ms. Grijalva promised to be the 218th name on the discharge petition upon taking office. Without Ms. Grijalva being seated, it can’t reach 218 signatures and thus the issue of the Epstein files cannot be debated in Congress or voted upon.

What happens now?

Along with all 213 House Democrats signing on to the discharge petition, there are 4 Republicans currently supporting it - Reps. Massie, Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), and Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). It is very likely that Republican leadership is preventing Ms. Grijalva from being sworn in so they can pressure at least one of these four Republicans to withdraw their names from the discharge petition. If they are successful in getting even one of those Republicans to drop their support, the entire petition collapses even with Ms. Grijalva’s backing, because it would no longer have 218 signatures in any scenario. It is at that point after they have stopped the House from voting on anything related to Jeffrey Epstein, that they would finally seat Ms. Grijalva.

It should be noted that Republicans aren’t doing all of this because there were any issues with the election. Arizona’s 7th district is reliably Democratic. Kamala Harris won 61 percent of the vote in this district last year. Ms. Grijalva won 69 percent in the special election. They also, believe it or not, aren’t doing all this because Ms. Grijalva happens to be a Democrat. They had no problem immediately swearing in the aforementioned Virginia Democrat (Rep. James Walkinshaw) just weeks ago. Instead, it’s become clear that Republicans will do anything to avoid having to vote on whether to release the Epstein files. Nothing is off limits, because being forced to vote on this matter is a lose-lose situation for the party leadership. By voting to publicize the information of a convicted pedophile and his clients, they risk infuriating the president (who definitely isn’t associated with Epstein, believe me folks!) But by voting to keep that information private to appease the White House, Republicans further cement their status as the Predator Protection Party.